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P Index History
P Index
6-Month Avg
Strong Buy 1400+
Buy & Develop 1100+
Selective 800+
Cautious 500+
How It Works
Net Migration
Stats NZ monthly net arrivals. High migration increases housing demand. Weighted ×1.5.
Building Consents
New dwelling consents from Stats NZ — leading indicator of supply response. Weighted ×0.5.
Floating Mortgage Rate
RBNZ B3 lending rates in basis points. Higher rates suppress affordability. Weighted ×−0.25.
Unemployment
Stats NZ HLFS trend series. Rising unemployment reduces purchasing power. Weighted ×−0.25.
Residential Sales
NZ-wide monthly REINZ sales — direct measure of buyer confidence. Weighted ×1.0.
Section Sales
REINZ section sales — strongest leading indicator of new development intent. Weighted ×2.0.
Methodology
Each indicator is normalised to a z-score against its long-run mean and standard deviation, then weighted and combined into a composite score.
P = 84.582 + 144.004 × (1.5·z_migration + 0.5·z_consents − 0.25·z_rate − 0.25·z_unemployment + 1.0·z_res_sales + 2.0·z_section_sales)
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